They claim that a civil war in the modern U.S. Skeptics generally claim that the current political climate is a form of mostly nonviolent culture war that does not represent a existential risk. ĭetractors claim discussion of a second civil war is alarmist, fearmongering, polarizing, fails to account for the United States' turbulent history of political violence, and detracts from other serious problems facing the nation (such as democratic backsliding). They typically cite discredited conspiracy theories related to COVID-19 misinformation, election rigging, the deep state, or white replacement theory to justify their position. Constitution, and implement a new form of tyranny. Less commonly, some conservative observers, including Republican politicians, claim a second civil war is being stoked by far-left and socialist movements, such as Antifa, that seek to spark a revolution, suspend the U.S. Some researchers have also posited that a civil war might start along racial and religious lines, exacerbated by the rise of secularization and multiculturalism in America, coupled with white decline and the decline in Christianity. military, negative economic conditions (such as growing federal debt, income inequality and the 2021-2022 inflation surge), a steady rise in political violence (particularly among far-right domestic terrorists), a loss of faith in the legitimacy of the government, and the normalization of open discussion of civil war. Those who see "warning signs" of a new civil war cite democratic decline, the rise of authoritarian movements driven by Trumpism and the Republican Party's increasing inability to win fair elections, the polarizing effect of a winner-take-all two-party system, a radicalized citizenry with a record high gun ownership rate, a rise in membership of right-wing militias since 2008, irreconcilable beliefs about critical issues (such as who won an election), political tension within the U.S. Others claim a second civil war may have already begun. "on the brink of a widening abyss" and at "genuine risk of civil conflict." Some assert that the country is currently locked into a cold civil war between the political left and the political right that could break out into an open war within the next 5 to 10 years, with many identifying the 2024 presidential election as a potential fire-starter. On the first anniversary of the 2021 Capitol attack, former President Jimmy Carter warned that the nation's inability to confront "toxic polarization" in the aftermath of the attack put the U.S. generals ), investors, and politicians on both sides of the political divide started to raise concerns that the United States might break into civil war in the coming years.
#Shattered union refueling trial#
Concern of civil war rose dramatically after the first impeachment trial of Donald Trump, and continued to grow due to the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest sparked by the George Floyd protests, and the aftermath of the highly contentious 2020 United States presidential election (which resulted in the election of Joe Biden, the 2021 United States Capitol attack, and the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump).įollowing the violent Capitol attack in 2021, an increasing number of political scientists, journalists, historians, intelligence officials, military leaders (including former U.S. In 2016, discussion of a possible second civil war entered the mainstream in earnest as a result of the polarizing effect of the election of Donald Trump. Discussion of a second civil war has occurred with varying degrees of frequency and sincerity since the first civil war ended in 1865. Occasionally, references to a second civil war by political leaders and commentators are more serious in nature. the removal of a sitting president massive changes in federal laws perceived as unconstitutional). The phrase "second civil war" has been used in political discourse, usually as a non-serious threat if certain actions are taken by the opposing political party (e.g. The " Second American Civil War" is an umbrella term used by some academics to reclassify historical eras of significant political violence in the United States as a "civil war," or more commonly to discuss the potential outbreak of a future civil war.